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Ankara's hedgehogs too know only one big thing The hedgehogs in Ankara thought they were “pulling a Crimea” when intervening in Syria. At the end, Turkey found itself waiting at Washington’s door for an additional batch of forty F-16’s. Greece signed a 19th century style defence agreement with France as well as procuring fregates and Rafale fighter jets.    
In the wake of Sochi the foreign policy in tatters All eyes on Rome then? Maybe. Imagine for a second Biden showing up at the meeting with McGurk in tow. Most likely that will not happen, but still. All in all, walking on water like Jesus does not seem to be an option in diplomacy. For the time being, Turkey’s foreign policy appears to be disjointed and at sea’s end.   Erdoğan's struggle against odds The times of driving a wedge between Russia and the U.S. seem to be over. And in domestic politics, Erdoğan is now for the first time in his history leading an uphill battle against a somewhat united - or at least coordinated - opposition. In both domestic and foreign policy fronts the yawning gap between the reality and the rhetoric grows wider by the day.       
Turkey as both problem and solution An increasingly geriatric Europe may wish to extend an understanding hand to the adolescent -and for the time being unpredictable- Turkish Republic if it wishes to avoid falling into full dementia. If accompanied with diplomatic tact and with a more creative and constructive approach, the Turkish problem may transform to become the solution. The new cold war The old cold war ended since a while now and we are in the 21st century –surprise! The history did not end in 1989 as expected but it does not exactly continue from that point where we have left it either. Explaining Erdoğan's interest in Afghanistan In a striking turn-about, Erdoğan declared during his recent visit to Bosnia and Montenegro that he was not knowledgeable about the difference between the ISIS and the Taliban. AKP tenors too followed suit by hammering in the fact that no matter what, Turkey is not open for a single more refugee. The real cold war is with Islamism Any variety of Islamism from the ISIS-K or Taliban to Pakistan, Iran or you name it is no more intrinsically compatible than the Chinese model with those universal values upheld by the West. “Difficult” partners like Turkey will be the bellwethers for defeat or victory in that real cold war. What would Nathan Muir do? It may be helpful to try and read the minds of some who, for one reason or the other, would be a tad more silently welcoming the news of the said debacle in Afghanistan. What course would Imran Khan and Erdoğan already be charting by now? There appear to be a new species in international relations under the rubric of “client-blackmailer” more timidly known as “difficult partner”. Ankara's Kabul Airport plan finally shelved If Afghanistan is not Turkey or the other way around, is the Justice and Development Party (AKP) not Turkey’s or Europe’s or NATO’s Taliban? Absolute non-sense or sheer provocation many would exclaim. Will Erdoğan pay a political price for the forest fires? The basic question in this round is whether Erdoğan will pay a political price this time around at last. Or, as usual, will the burden of misgovernment be deflected and dispersed again among the deafening propaganda noise? Putting out fires where arson is policy For Erdoğan's AKP, the ship to become a Muslim Democrat movement, modeled on European and Latin American Christian Democrats, since long sailed away. With the climate change worsening, forced immigration and environmental damage will create enormous stress for the already fledgling Turkish democracy. Erdoğan's Cyprus bet backfires - or maybe not Erdoğan’s latest foray into Cyprus is a low cost, low budget stunt to ignite an additional slow burning artificial crisis. It offers a renewed opportunity to threaten his counterparts in the EU and creates an environment to at worst keep things as they are and at best to wring more concessions; hence is a domestic win-win. The utter failure of nation building Pluralism, decentralization, rule of law, social justice, building institutions and infrastructure, good governance and what not: The to-do list is obvious. Strategic patience (not to confuse with lethargy) and political vision (not to confuse with “having visions”) are in short supply. Does a shortcut exist? Biji serok Erdoğan! The select crowd gathered in Diyarbakır saluted President Erdoğan over the weekend. Why now and does Erdoğan’s move dovetail into his recent domestic and foreign policy moves? Opression, resistance and anarchic foreign policy Nobody in their sober minds would dare to predict that Erdoğan's AKP will stay in power for 72 years like the Chinese Communist Party. Today, even 72 months look like a far too long of a stretch for Erdoğan. The prevailing ambiance in Turkey is one of “fin de règne” to put it timidly, if not one of outright implosion in corruption, despotism, nepotism and kleptocracy. And ever changing forms of oppression in Turkey create their own answers in new forms of resistance. Erdoğan shields his regime Erdoğan’s foreign policy outlook took a realistic turn lately. That wide turn itself is not based on rationality, neither on a sudden clearing of mind, nor on vision, but it stems from necessity. That necessity itself is imposed upon Erdoğan by further embrittlement of the already highly fragile national Turkish economy by the nefarious effects of the pandemic and by bad governance. First casualty of Erdoğan-Biden bilateral The first casualty’s name is Deniz Poyraz. She was a Kurdish woman with a telling Turkish name in her twenties who played violin in her spare time and worked at the HDP’s provincial headquarters. The geopolitics of the İzmir murder and the diplomatic ripple effect of the bargain struck in Brussels is telling. The fascist murderer in İzmir turns out to have spent time in northern Syria fighting alongside Turkey backed rebels. S-400 and YPG in mutual parentheses? Here is my executive summary for what may happen today: U.S. will turn a somewhat conditional blind eye to the S-400s for the time being, while Turkey will do the same for the U.S.’ military cooperation with the YPG. The sweetener of the deal, if that mutual temporary understanding can be called a deal, will be the Turkish Armed Forces’ securing of Kabul’s international airport. Deal angles of the upcoming Erdoğan-Biden meeting Whether a deal between Erdoğan and Biden is probable or not, that we do not know. What we may pretend to know is the fact that a deal, a mutual understanding is definitely possible when the two leaders will meet for the first time in Brussels in the margins of the NATO summit on the 14th of June. Erdoğan's difficult balancing act The wide U-turn Erdoğan is undertaking in foreign policy is neither a balancing act, nor hedging his bets. It more and more looks like a headlong dash into the unknown. Regime change and foreign policy AKP and Erdoğan’s motto was “new Turkey”. That turned out to be a worst caricature of the old. New Turkey after Erdoğan will have an at least more rational foreign policy. Turkey has a place in history and in geography. Once the rebuilding will start in earnest, a recalibrated foreign policy must and will ensue. An odd road companion The disconnect with reality of both Erdoğan himself and his ruling coalition is obvious. The yawning gap between the fiery rhetoric and the actions on the ground are getting visibly larger. The real story perhaps for the hapless citizen who flocked in millions to watch mafia boss Sedat Peker’s YouTube elucubrations is still the confinement and the pandemic’s human and economic toll. Of pride and prejudice - If I may Being Turkish, one is expected first to apologize for being Turkish. For all that matter, even Turkishness is debatable. Our common past is not by default our history. No one can claim that Atatürk was a political thinker equivalent of, say, even a Lenin. Yet it is also an undeniable fact that Atatürk is the founder of this secular republic, as it did not pop out on its own. It is still also a fact that we could not manage to write a “seminal” biography of Atatürk until today. Turkish foreign policy: Act III Neo-Ottomanism is behind us, as well as the BlueHomelandism. We, seemingly, reached the point where we can’t sell, eat and keep the cake at the same time. The game is back to where it always was. Empty coffers due to bad governance, nepotism, corruption and the pandemic, as well as change at the helm of the U.S. presidency forced Erdoğan’s hand but did not render him more predictable. Time is at pragmatism or at outright opportunism. And the phone rings at last The long awaited phone call came at last from U.S. President Biden to his Turkish counterpart after three months in the office. “An awkward silence ensued…” one is tempted to continue even if “all hell broke loose afterwards” Ankara would have liked us to believe. Suffice it to note that Erdoğan significantly chose not to respond directly to Biden who recognized the Armenian Genocide on April 24, 2021. A rough ride and tough choices for Ankara A rough ride and tough choices are ahead for the Turkish diplomacy in the remainder of 2021. This appears be the year where the chicken will have to come home to roost. Ankara, painted itself to an unnecessary corner, henceforth now is in need to re-assert its identity. A value-based invitation for this old new fat kid in the block from the West would be timely. Ursula standing EU duo’s Ankara visit’s timing, too, was a display of poor judgment. The unplanned “sofagate” episode only exposed the short-comings of a “bicephalous supra-state organisation”. The EU is in urgent need of a GPS device and of some serious auditing. Turkey file may as well be a good starting point.     In the crosshairs of the three global fault lines Turkey today, looks as if it is willing to further corrupt itself by deepening its relations with Moscow, as if it is turning for inspiration towards the Chinese “third way” and as if for it secularism is either anathema or an anachronic luxury to be finally dispensed with. Turkey’s ever pragmatist or opportunist leadership looks forthcoming towards the idea of selling the few remaining family jewels to China as a last resort. US must help Turkey, to help itself out By finding a smart refined way to re-establish diplomatic communication with Ankara, the U.S. will also be indirectly helping Turkey out of its Islamist-nationalist party-state problem. For less anarchy in the future, more and better hybridisation is in demand. Nero & Caligula: Two in one Democracy dies in Turkey not with a whimper but with a big bang for all those who have ears to hear it. What’s on Erdoğan’s agenda is actually the next elections. He seems bound to lose them. As that will be an outcome Erdoğan and company can ill afford, they are hell-bent on burning our common house down.