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Two rival strategies for Kurds in new Syria
The fundamental contradiction emerges between the U.S. and Turkey. While the two countries' priorities align on managing the armed insurgency, dismantling Syria, and ensuring Israel's security, they diverge when it comes to integrating the SDF-YPG into the new order.
The end of an era
The developments in Syria not only bring geopolitical fractures but also fuel the internal struggle to establish a new order, one that is doomed to disorder. The collapse of the Assad regime signifies the removal of a barrier to the Middle East order designed to safeguard Israel.
Why did Russia call Turkey ‘occupying force’? A few scenarios in Syria
Although no withdrawal is expected in Syria in the short term, the future of support for the Kurds is uncertain. For the Americans, support for the SDF should continue as a pressure factor on the ground to shape the Syrian government and break Iran's influence. But it seems inevitable that they will reach a point where they can say, 'Yes, it's time to go.' This is a prediction that the Americans do not deny.
Trump is back, the US has avoided civil war... And the world?
Is the journey of a polarizing and tension-spreading negotiator beginning? What he did in the previous period was to talk tough to his enemies without going to war. There was no shortage of his foolishness that might lead to war. What can he build on the previous period? Absolute continuity or a little revision?
Why is Öcalan back in the picture?
It is not without reason that Bahçeli, and not the head of the executive, is speaking... Apart from some developments, there is nothing reassuring yet. For now, we can discuss the reasons for this change. If there is a change of course at the state level, what are the factors driving it? In my opinion, regional developments are not less important than domestic political considerations...
Beheading or ceasefire
The resistance on the ground is a swamp for Israel. The war on the border is still far from Hezbollah's main defense centers. Whoever Hamas’ political chief is, the front will ultimately have the final say. What remains of Sinwar is unflinching determination. Israel's beheading sessions are adding more radical layers to this determination.
As the fronts intertwine...
One wonders what the Axis of Resistance's strategy will be if Israel's escalating attacks on Lebanon without closing the Gaza front reach a point where Hezbollah is overwhelmed.
Never mind the BRICS, focus on Libya
As Turkey normalizes its relations with Egypt and the UAE—with whom it has clashed over Libya—it experiences fluctuations in its ties with Russia. All these actors are in a position to approve or reject Turkey's membership in BRICS. And everyone expects Turkey to adopt more cooperative policies.
What makes Sisi brother?
It is impossible for Sisi or other Arab leaders to influence Assad when the normalization model Erdoğan has in mind has no equivalent in Damascus. Moreover, if they are hoping for Sisi to help the political stance he overthrew in Egypt to come to power in Syria, it means that they have not learned any lessons from what has happened so far. Doesn't Sisi's reference to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk when talking about bilateral relations show where he stands in the face of the political Islamist agenda?
Putin's abrupt return to South Caucasus
The dark clouds rising from the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian army has been deployed, have given way to clear skies in Baku. Putin wants to reclaim the Russian role in the South Caucasus, which the West is trying to seize... Aliyev's attentive reception of Putin not only confirms a distanced stance in the face of the new Cold War, but also reflects a quest to balance Turkey, whose influence in the region has been growing since the Karabakh war.
Those who say it was ‘theater’ shouldn’t read this article!
It would be misleading to evaluate Iran's attack in terms of what percentage of its weapons reached their targets, or to liken it to a farce. Recall that Hezbollah, too, has not been pursuing a simple strategy of confrontation for the past six months, but has been firing shots aimed at unraveling the Iron Dome. It must be admitted that the Iranians are masters of long-term power struggles, the allergies of the regime's own people aside.
Iran’s defeat!
Turnout in Iran's parliamentary elections was recorded as 41 percent. This is the lowest level in 45 years. The low voter turnout across the country, as well as the 24 percent turnout in the capital Tehran, puts the regime below its self-imposed threshold of legitimacy. The low turnout ensures continued control for them, but it also undermines the regime's legitimacy.
Islamists renew their faith with Palestine
The Palestinian cause is like the confessional box of political Islamism. Every time a genocidal war against Gaza begins, it opens its curtain to its believers. The greatest harm that could be done to the Palestinian cause would be to reduce it to a religious war. Turkish President Erdoğan did this by saying, “This is a cross-crescent issue.” Palestinian Christians are also victims of the occupying colonialist and genocidal war.
How did the bird that will burn Biden fly out of the nest?
Luft's information reveals the Biden family's dirty dealings with the Chinese. Luft is on the run, but the scandal that has been under the carpet is being pursued by Congress. A nightmare file is coming for Biden, who announced that he will be running again for the presidency!
Why does the FBI want to silence Luft?
Dr. Gal Luft was detained in Larnaca on 16 February. As an Energy and security expert, he was a consultant to the Chinese energy company CEFC. The beginning of the process that put Luft on target was the Biden family's unusual relationship with CEFC founder Ye Jianming. So what is it that makes the FBI go after Lutf and make the person they are chasing fear of being killed?
Iran and Turkey return to the old game
With both Iran and Turkey reevaluating relations with the long-deadlocked Arab world, the Persian-Turkish rivalry may rear its ugly head.
What’s cooking for Syria in the Russian-American pot?
While Turkey is focusing on Idlib where three Turkish soldiers were recently killed, there is a lot of traffic surrounding Syria. It is being debated whether the U.S. will maintain its military presence in Syria and thus we are observing a series of cross-meetings. Yet, for now, all forecasts and expectations regarding Syria must start with conditional sentences.
If you criticize Turkey’s border policy, you are a traitor
After Turkey lost two soldiers in Syria last week, Turkey’s Defense Minister went to the boarder and stated that, “revenge of our martyrs has been taken.” However, while an organization thought to be the screen of al-Qaeda-aligned structures in Idlib claimed responsibility for the bombing, Turkey instead indiscriminately strikes Kurdish areas.
Good jihadi drives out bad jihadi in Afghanistan
As the Taliban seeks international recognition, it will have to curb radicals and encourage them to refrain from actions that would harm the administration. This policy may push their own extremists into ISIS-K, which is eager to be a magnet for those dissatisfied with Taliban ‘tolerance.’ The Taliban may also have to wage a war on ISIS-K, to pave the way for international partnership.
The mission to protect the Taliban
President Tayyip Erdoğan appears to be more than willing to shake hands with the Taliban. What he has consented to looks like a mission beyond working with the new Afghan government in accordance with the interests of the Turkish state. Perhaps it is a mission that is to be updated according to the circumstances.
Erdoğan treating Turkey like a foreign country
Erdoğan is ready to go anywhere from Syria, Libya, Somalia and Qatar to Karabakh and Afghanistan. His heart extends to wide regions. But this generous heart has no place for Turkey because that country in the disaster zone is unfortunate. It is like a foreign country to him.
How to seize an island: Northern Cyprus
Northern Cyprus is receiving its share of the Turkish government’s practice of seizing and destroying all fields within Turkey, from politics to public institutions, the economy, and nature. All the decisions concerning Cyprus are made by Erdoğan despite the Cypriots and he does not even let Ersin Tatar make the announcement. Who is Tatar anyway? He is a trustee.
Erdoğan is the only one not worried about the Kabul mission
In Afghanistan, the Taliban is returning. The U.S. wants to keep the Kabul airport secure while handing over military bases to Afghan forces and Turkey is eager to take on this mission. Turkey could be the catalyst for a solution in Afghanistan if everything goes smoothly, but, given the circumstances and demands put forward, Erdoğan’s bid is shooting itself in the foot.
Erdoğan pushing Putin's buttons
President Erdoğan has pushed Russia’s buttons by volunteering to serve U.S. interests in Afghanistan at last week's Brussels meeting. Erdoğan will have to face Russian leader Vladimir Putin one day. He has too many deficits in that account. The ice that started melting in Brussels could freeze at any moment.
The mafia-like Turkish government
Exiled Turkish mafia boss Sedat Peker continues to come up with allegations concerning deep state secrets. Peker's words conjure memories of Turkey’s past support of paramilitary groups, militarization, and the use of drones in President Erdoğan's foreign policy. He gives the impression that he is holding secrets that may harm the state. Perhaps Peker is hiding the most crucial information for a final hand.
Turkey begs Egypt for forgiveness
Negotiations with Cairo also mean negotiations with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. At the moment, it looks like the Saudi-UAE duo have handed over the Turkey file to Cairo. They know that Erdoğan is backed into a corner and they want to see how far he will go to meet Cairo’s list of demands. Now, every country is responding to Turkey’s normalization offers with a list. Thanks to little foresight and too many mistakes.
Turkey needs to clean its social conscience
No matter how 1915 is remembered, the “consensus of the state and the nation” of massacres, looting, exiles, and murders has been internalized. It is Turkey’s curse. Erdoğan government’s style of politics persistently blinds social conscience in a way that leaves no space for reviewing, examining, or confronting. This situation has become a traumatic load in foreign affairs over the years.
Turkey’s Ukraine policy swept away by cold Black Sea wind
For now, the course is shifting from hot war scenarios to cold war. While the U.S. administration is reluctant to take steps to provoke Russia in the military sphere. This outcome presents an ice-cold picture of those who calculated that NATO would act as a shield for Ukraine. Turkey now finds itself left out in the cold, frosty winds of the Black Sea.
An abnormal attempt at normalization: Turkey’s foreign relations
President Erdoğan is trying to conceal Turkey’s international withdrawal via anti-law, anti-human, anti-woman, anti-environmental domestic operations. He is pushing the limits in order to convert authoritarianism into totalitarianism. Within the international system, there appears to be a surface-level attempt at harmony out of necessity; however, Turkey is pitting neighbor against neighbor. Thus, the quest for normalization of foreign relations is horizon-less.
Turkey’s ‘blue homeland’ concept at odds Egypt’s indifference
In the midst of Turkey’s struggle for energy and maritime jurisdictions in the eastern Mediterranean, Egypt's announcement of a new round of bidding for hydrocarbon exploration on Feb. 18 was interpreted as Cairo wanting to shake hands with Ankara. Thus, there was widespread disappointment when then gesture was withdrawn.