İlhan Uzgel

iuzgel@gazeteduvar.com.tr
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Erdoğan’s lose-lose bargain with Biden  Even if Erdoğan could “reset” relations with the Biden administration and manage to open a new page, it will be a much more asymmetrical relationship than before. Erdoğan is ready to concede in many areas so long as it helps him to stay in power. He is now betting on a model, which is basically a combination of cooperation abroad and authoritarianism at home. For Turkey, this is a lose-lose situation.
Turkey’s foreign policy in free fall For the last ten years, AKP’s policies have led the world to perceive Turkish government as negative, authoritarian, and expansionist. Turkey now has alienated its allies, confronted neighbors, became part of almost all the conflicts and disputes in some of which it has not a clear exit strategy. The Islamist understanding of politics has failed in all areas of life. Foreign policy is part of this general failure. US winner of the competition between Turkey and Greece The U.S. 6th Fleet, which had notorious connotations for the left wing movements both in Greece and Turkey, can now fortifies its military presence and operations in Crete and Alexandropoulos, and at the same time, it can conduct joint military exercises with the Turkish navy in the Black Sea, with no visible reaction from the public of those two countries.
From strategic autonomy to strategic retreat With regard to the new Biden administration, Turkey’s AKP government seems to have given up its previous policy of “strategic autonomy” and is showing signs of “strategic retreat,” so as to give the impression of being a responsible ally. The AKP government has become used to turning foreign policy into a mechanism to extend its governance and is now working to develop a new relationship with the U.S., but these efforts have yet to be answered. Towards a strategic integration in East-Med and Gulf geopolitics The dispute in the Gulf led Turkey’s military engagement in this region with a military base and presence, the dispute between Turkey and Greece brought Saudis and the UAE to the Eastern Mediterranean. In search of a reset with the West At any given time in Turkey’s modern history, its foreign policy has never confronted so many countries and power centers simultaneously. The Erdoğan administration’s policy of attempting to control an entire region from Libya to Iraq by implementing a nationalist/Islamist project has now reached its limits. Thus, Erdoğan is now attempting to switch from the policy he has pursued so far and, in a way, wants to reset relations with the West. Turkey's Russia problem It is obvious that a country which is on the opposing side of Turkey in almost all regional foreign and security issues cannot be a country that Turkey can rely upon and take strength from whilst opposing the West. It is impossible for the U.S. not to see this. For Turkey, Russia has become an opponent whilst trying to deal with regional issues and a rival that it is seeking to protect itself from, instead of a counterbalance factor. The “Blue Homeland” and Turkey’s new forward defence doctrine The Blue Homeland doctrine is a product of Kemalist maritime officers. The nationalists realized that allying with Erdoğan would bring crucial advantages, such as using the radical Islamists as a proxy back and forth in Syria and in Libya, and forging military ties with Qatar and Somalia. Fighting the virus the Turkish way Through its control over the media, the Erdoğan government has been doing everything to turn the coronavirus epidemic into a domestic and foreign policy success story. However, the political use of the coronavirus has its limits. From the Syrian Civil War to Turkish-Syrian War An array of miscalculations and misjudgments have been guiding Turkey which caused to the loss of 53 of its troops in one month, put it practically into a war with both Syria and Russia, forced its foreign policy to falter, asking for support from NATO and causing another crisis with Greece and the EU due to migration issue. Is Idlib a sign of a new shift in the axis? The Idlib crisis may mark a transition into a new phase in the Turkish-Russian relationship, and a reshuffling of Turkey’s balancing policy of the West with the close cooperation with Moscow. With the Syrian regime and Russia out of patience in Idlib, and with Turkey and Russia facing each other again on opposite sides in Libya, Turkish-Russian relations have come to a crossroads. Middle Easternization of Turkey and its Policy The Europeanization of Turkish politics has already become a forgotten concept, and in hindsight, it is now clear that the AKP was merely toying with the idea of democratization: it was not a genuine endeavor. Rather, it served the purpose of image- building, cementing an alliance with the liberals, and breaking the obstinacy of the statist anti-AKP sections within the state apparatus. In this way, Europeanization was the most short-lived policy orientation in the history of the country. The rise of Turkey’s gunboat diplomacy The Erdoğan government has been taking Turkey from one crisis to another, opening up new military and diplomatic fronts. The government’s decision to send troops to support the Government of National Accord in Libya, and its prior acceptance that these forces can be engaged in actual conflicts, is the most risky military adventure the AKP has ever taken. Turkey: isolated, frustrated, overstretched Never before in its history, Turkey had to deal with so many issues, engagements, crises, military involvements, and operations all at the same time. At no time in the Republic’s history did Turkey interfered, involved and intervened in the affairs of its neighbors and other countries. What is striking is that in most of the cases, it is Turkey that plunged itself in these crises, and it is partly responsible for their escalation as in the Syrian case. Turkey's proxy war in Syria Turkey did not have previous experience in conducting proxy wars. However, Turkey was relatively quick to adapt to the realities on the ground in Syria and rather successful in forming an army from the diverse groups of Islamist fighters despite the fact that it had no history of resorting proxy wars. A new policy tool in Turkish foreign policy: Blackmail With its authoritarian sliding, the AKP resorted to new foreign policy tools, the most effective of which seems to be blackmailing its opponents. But when it comes to human beings treated as bargaining chips, it is morally an despicable act whoever becomes part of it. This is what Turkey and its opponents have been doing for some time. In this Turkey’s newly discovered foreign policy individuals, masses and even terrorist groups were utilized as part of a bargaining process. Struck in a policy of balance So far Erdoğan administration did not take into account a possible consensus between the U.S. and Russia on the Syrian crisis. There is still a serious risk that both the U.S. and Russia, which are cooperating behind the doors rather than engaging in a zero-sum game in Syria, can take a common stand against Turkey that may leave the Erdoğan government to face a humiliating end of its involvement in Syria. The costs of the Syrian crisis Although heavy-handed crackdown on Kurdish politics that is still underway, Turkey can still turn this operation into an advantage to resume peace talks with its own Kurds. China's subtle strategy and the US' dilemma Even though China has not officially challenged the American hegemonia, with its population, economic capacity and increasing military power is the most serious rival it has ever seen. AKP burning itself out AKP has become an administration that is dependent on MHP domestically, on international foreign capital financially, on USA strategically and on Russia in terms of energy and in Syria. And instead of reducing these dependencies some of which have roots in the past, AKP added more to the list and deepened them. AKP burning itself out After rising to power as the embodiment of the Islamist movement's revival in Turkey with intense support from primarily USA, then EU and Gulf states who saw the party as the flag carrier of democratization in Turkey, AKP became the Turkish representative of right wing authoritarian populism which saw a global rise after 2010's.