Sezin Öney

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Turkey’s foreign policy labyrinth Turkey’s foreign policy is like a labyrinth these days with the symbolic departure of Chancellor Merkel as well as the AUKUS deal and France’s new defense treaty with Greece diminishing NATO’s relevance in transatlantic relations. Although neither Merkel nor NATO will disappear overnight, Turkey needs to reevaluate its strategy for getting out of this maze.
A post-Merkel Turkey The Germany elections are a turning point for Turkey. A post-Merkel Germany will impact Turkey’s foreign policy more than any other country. Any German government with ‘greener’ or ‘redder’ hues will be complicated for Ankara and the potential for radical change is so high that it feels like a government reshuffle is taking place inside Turkey. Rekindling of Cyprus negotiations: Why now? Turkey puts the individual topic of the Cyprus Question in a big bundle that encapsulated also the Eastern Mediterranean Issue. Now that Ankara’s relations with Egypt, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates are picking up, why not upend the Cyprus Question as a bargaining chip with all parties involved?
Turkey’s Cyprus bid amidst the genocide storm President Erdoğan and Turkey’s foreign ministry have adopted a ‘keep calm and carry on’ mood vis-à-vis Biden’s Armenian genocide statement. However, Ankara is concentrated on other targets: first and foremost is getting Northern Cyprus internationally recognized, which would be a win for Erdogan. Turkey’s government has its eyes on the future and realpolitik, rather than reality, the past, and the Armenian Genocide statement. Alpha males in Turkey-Greece relations Greece and Turkey’s war of words during a recent press conference of their foreign ministers in Ankara last week was indicative of the limits of rapprochement between the two countries. The leaders of both countries may be constrained by rising nationalist rhetoric in their countries. So, what awaits Greece and Turkey at the upcoming 5+1 talks? A 2004 scenario could play out again in the coming months if nationalism on both sides does not block their ‘alpha-type’ leaders. Unseated EU-Turkey relations Under “normal” circumstances, how von der Leyen is sidelined in seating at Erdoğan's palace would have been criticized and would cause jokes, but not ruffle so many feathers. Nevertheless, despite all intents and purposes, the EU-Turkey relations are anything but normal. However, one positive outcome of the seating scandal may be the European Commission’s “sharpened focus” on women's rights. A shift toward extreme Machiavellianism in Turkey’s foreign policy One of those arrested signatories of the recent Admirals’ Statement is the ideological father of Turkey’s Blue Homeland policy doctrine. The security bureaucracy has become a burden and liability to the government, as Turkey’s foreign policy is on the brink of a major shift. We are now entering an era of ‘extreme flexibility,’ meaning whatever suits the Presidency, indicating that Turkey is not bound by any doctrine or ideology. We may also refer to it as “extreme Machiavellianism.” Living on borrowed time Turkey was facing a Black Monday with plunging of Turkish Lira on March 22 but was holding a winning hand on the foreign policy front with getting “positive” with the U.S., China, and the EU. But structurally nothing changes, fragility remains and Turkey continues to live on borrowed time as far “positive agendas” are concerned. EU and Turkey are drowning relations On March 2, Turkey’s Action Plan on Human Rights was announced and intended to fix Turkey-EU relations. However, Turkey faces two upcoming decisions: The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe with infringement proceedings and the European Union Council leaders with the extension of sanctions. As both sides scramble to save the day, further sanctions and the Action Plan on Human Rights do not look like solutions, and they may just drown relations in the process. The nature of the NATO-Turkey relationship Despite the S-400 elephant in the room, Turkey and NATO seem to be getting on well. Given this rosy outlook, is the NATO-Ankara template a model for Turkey’s other institutional and official relations? Not really. NATO does not act positively towards Turkey out of sheer benevolence. The biggest issues between NATO and Turkey are still political, and they will not just disappear. Turkey’s new Kurdish imbroglio and the EU Rather than closing down the HDP altogether, the AKP is poised to further stifle the opposition and use the Kurdish issue and security issues. Its electoral ally, MHP, would play the bad cop, calling for even further draconian options-such as bringing back the death penalty and banning HDP. Would the EU go beyond “being deeply concerned”? Probably not! Can we expect a new constitution in Turkey? President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is currently testing out whether he still has the ability to sway the domestic political agenda. The most ambitious idea he has articulated these past few days is that of a ‘new constitution.’ In order to sell the idea sugar coating is essential. Fortunately for him, there are two ideological ‘miracle workers’ that have always worked: conservatism and nationalism. So, why not use them now? The invisible victims of the Turkey-EU spat As ties between the EU and Turkey faltered, so did the allocation of funds for Syrian refugees. In any case, the ESSN and other EU or international schemes to aid the Syrian refugees in Turkey should not be downplayed. They act as the life support these deprived and war-weary communities. Turkey's divorce with the West December turned out to be “Merry sanctions” month for Turkey. Still, it is “business as usual” in Ankara. If the EU and the Biden administration are betting that Turkey will be “happily ever after” with the West, their hopes are likely to be dashed. The notion that the West has lost its relevance in the new world order prevails at both the grassroots and political levels. Turkey and the EU in the post-Trump era Even though Ankara is acting as though everything is “business as usual,” Ankara may be contemplating Biden’s win with a heavy heart. Will Trump being voted out of office lead to a domino effect that ultimately leads to the end of the “populist era”? France is the real deal for Ankara Erdoğan obviously wants his reputation to rise within Muslim communities by taking on Macron, but the story is not just about recasting the “old spell” abroad. Some polls in Turkey place Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) at around 25-29%, which is the lowest point of the movement since its foundation almost 20 years ago. More than re-energizing the AK Party at the polls, Erdoğan may be opting to try to recreate the legend around him. Cyprus, the “kingmaker” President Erdoğan might use Northern Cyprus as a bargaining chip in the forthcoming peace talks sponsored by the United Nations and as part of a “transactional bargain” with the EU. In other words, the “Cyprus Question” is the new “Refugee Question” card for Turkey vis-à-vis the EU. The defrosting of the Cyprus question The elections in Northern Cyprus have turned into a referendum whether to unite with Turkey or reject unification. The “Unification of Northern Cyprus with Turkey” is an impossible idea: it is just as utopic as the unilateral opening of Varosha or turning Hagia Sophia into a mosque. Such possibilities seem “impossible” one day, but they are reality the next. Adding conflict to conflict Turkey’s involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh war must irk NATO the most among the conflicts in the mix it has to deal with. This is because it has to do with its very original task of dealing with “the Russian threat.” EU-Turkey goes 'back to the future' For the time being, Cyprus is silently removed to be an obstacle to common EU policymaking; in return for being turned into the kingmaker in the EU-Turkey relations. Towards a “cold peace” with Greece The summer of 2020 may have passed with no war and Turkey-Greece relations may at least be “warless,” with “exploratory talks“ on the way, but they are now in a “cold war” period. Greece and Turkey have lost the peace between them somewhere deep in the Aegean — for the time being. What if it comes to war between Greece and Turkey? So far, the mutual “controlled crisis escalation” policy of Athens and Ankara has somehow worked. It has “worked” in the sense that there has been no war, but tensions have risen higher and higher. But what if things get out of control within this “controlled crisis escalation” policy? Athens keeps pressuring Berlin for East Med Berlin’s intention was to pick up the Greece-Turkey negotiations in September and they are sticking to the time frame they set. So, all is fine and right on track for Germany. However, Greece’s patience is running thin, and instead of sitting idly by, Athens is trying to jolt Germany through its political rights within the European Union. Will post-Merkel Europe bear Macron's signature? If there is one beneficiary of the Greece-Turkey crisis, it is France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Macron has a very clear stance on backing Greece, which stands in deep contrast to Germany and the European Union Commission, both of which are hesitant to do so. ‘Here we go again,’ said Greece and Turkey Just as “détente” seemed to be in the cards for Turkey and Greece, things soured once more. And they soured big time. Like Poland, like Turkey: the Istanbul Convention as a rupture point The Istanbul Convention may become the new rupture point between the European Union and Turkey. Gender rights are just starting to be a battleground in Turkey, Poland and beyond. Our “Navtex” wars and the “Merkel” touch The seismic research vessel Oruç Reis is now parked inside the port of Antalya. The magic behind the rapprochement is named “Merkel” — but the recent spike of the Euro (and the U.S. dollar) vis-à-vis the Turkish lira may have to do with the sudden change of hearts in Ankara. A paradox of nothing and everything between the EU and Turkey Prior to the Hagia Sophia controversy, Turkey was already a “hot potato” issue both for the EU Commission and Germany. Some serious brainstorming has already been going on regarding what to do with Turkey as far as some EU countries are concerned. Revenge of the Hagia Sophia Ankara wants to play the “Leader of the Muslim world card” — but there is more to Hagia Sophia’s conversion than just that. Just like the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “West Bank annexation” policy, Ankara banks on the strategy of “creating an international problem to overshadow debating domestic grievances and making national politics dependent on the existing government through isolation” strategy. The game is on between the EU and Turkey Ankara is more concerned with France’s involvement in Libya than either Greece or Cyprus at the moment. Is this a window of opportunity for a Turkey and Greece-Cyprus rapprochement? It might be, provided that the EU concedes to visa liberalization, the Customs Union, or both.