Israel is at a crossroads. Either it will insist on an open-ended war that will demolish everything, or it will consider the genocide as a victory and accept a ceasefire.
After the elimination of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had set his mind on a complete cleansing on the ground with a 'ground operation'. Now he does not consider the assassination of Yahya Sinwar in Gaza sufficient revenge for October 7 and speaks of war until the end.
Golda Meir's words “The day the Arabs’ fear of Israel disappears is the day of our end” still guide us. 'Fear' is Israel's insurance! It is a fear that Arabs in general and Palestinians in particular feel all the time. In fact, it is the fear of those who live in the lands they usurped and the houses they stole. Fear produces atrocities.
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Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was the most logical enemy Israel could have found in Lebanon. He was a leader who responded to Israel in a language it understood, who did not shy away from negotiations, and who leveraged military deterrence as leverage to reach an agreement.
Hamas political bureau head Yahya Sinwar was also a pragmatic leader who was open to negotiations, despite his seeming uncompromising and ruthlessness.
After the attacks that wiped out Hezbollah's top command, the bet was that the movement would disintegrate. The same logic is being applied to Hamas.
Hezbollah has shown that it has maintained its defensive and offensive capacity. The lower cadres are following Nasrallah's instructions, showing a resilience that disrupts calculations.
The situation in Gaza, which has been bombarded with enough bombs for a world war, is dire. But Sinwar's death did not bring further collapse to the front there. Perhaps Sinwar would be remembered by some Palestinians as a leader whose miscalculations led his people to disaster. In dying, he left an iconic image that was not in the enemy's calculation. If he had died underground while the Palestinian people were paying the price above ground, it would be different. Israel has heroized its greatest enemy with the images it served. Those who called Sinwar a “sewer rat” have refuted their own claims. Sinwar died resisting in the south, in the area Israel has been destroying for five months, not running, hiding or begging.
Sinwar was not a typical political Islamist. His interaction with other resistance organizations, especially those on the left wing, around the Palestinian cause was strong. He had sides that did not fit into his madness. His motivation was strong. Of course, Hamas will be shaken, but it will not disappear with Sinwar. Hamas is a movement based on cadres and grassroots, not on a single leader. It has lost many influential leaders, from Sheikh Ahmed Yassin to Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, from Yahya Ayyash to Ismail Abu Shanab. But each new wave has been tougher than the last. Sinwar's departure will not affect the military front much. Each region is already fighting its own war of survival. The new leader will probably be chosen based on the balance between the 'fighting cadres', the 'Axis of Resistance', and the 'financiers of the ceasefire'. Whoever the political chief is, the front will ultimately have the final say. What remains of Sinwar is unflinching determination. Israel's beheading sessions are adding more radical layers to this determination.
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While Sinwar's death has endeared Netanyahu to the genocidal crowd, it also puts him under pressure for a ceasefire. “Now that the architect of October 7th has been killed, it's time to end the war,” allies are lining up. Israel's patrons know that they have to negotiate a ceasefire with Hamas, even though Israel's patrons say that “Gaza without Hamas has a chance.” But Netanyahu does not seem to be affected by this. He talks about going all the way. He has no exit map. Israel is increasing tension with options such as “ethnic cleansing and full occupation”, “Palestinian Authority under military control”, “occupation from the margins”, “temporary occupation.” The strategy is unclear. The only clear goal is to take a piece of Gaza as a trophy at the end of the day. And the constant goal is to end Hamas irreversibly. But the moment the occupation forces withdraw, the resistance goes on the offensive. This is why the Israeli army has returned to the Jabaliya refugee camp, which it says it has cleared. According to senior defense officials who spoke to Haaretz, the government is pushing for the gradual annexation of most of Gaza. Three weeks ago, 400,000 people in northern Gaza, who had been repeatedly expelled to the south, were ordered to leave the area completely. This will become a military zone. Those who remain will be declared military enemies. No food or water will be allowed into the area.
Hossam Shabat, a journalist from Gaza, reports on this plan: “The Israeli occupation has besieged us in this area, including Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabaliya refugee camp. Since October 1, they have stopped all food, water, and medical supplies from entering. They threatened to close hospitals. They have stopped fuel from entering hospitals and are targeting anyone who moves.”
Even after Sinwar's death, reports of massacres in Jabaliya and Beit Lahia show that Israel's course remains unaffected. And Hamas continues on its course without Sinwar.
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On the other hand, Israel has been unable to detach the Lebanese front from Gaza after Nasrallah. So far, Hezbollah has managed to stand in the way of the invasion moves. The intensity of the attacks is increasing. The initial goal was to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, according to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Of course, 1701 has no restrictions on civilian settlements. The Israeli army first demanded the evacuation of the settlements between the ceasefire line that forms the de facto border and Litani. Not content with that, last Monday it demanded the evacuation of the area between the Litani and Awali rivers. In other words, it is pushing for the de-population of the area 48 km from the border. This is clearly an occupation plan. If successful, it will move to the second phase. The likely goal is to extend the occupation to the Syrian border. The strategic context here is that if they extend the occupation from southeast Lebanon to the Golan, they will have the water sources of two rivers and fertile land. Second, they will cut off Hezbollah's supply routes from Syria.
But the resistance on the ground is a swamp for Israel. The war on the border is still far from Hezbollah's main defense centers. Yediot Aharonot newspaper also reported this. It is the 4-5 man units that are inflicting casualties on Israeli troops and forcing them to retreat. The Israeli army says it is doing a step-by-step ground cleaning, identifying where Hezbollah fighters enter and exit. This could turn into a war of attrition that could last for years.
Beyond that, Hezbollah has begun to respond in ways that could change the course. After the drone attack on the Golani Brigade training headquarters near Haifa, in which four soldiers were killed and 67 wounded, it struck Netanyanu's residence in the town of Caesarea, 70 kilometers from the border. In terms of intelligence gathering, target mapping, military tactics and capacities in the Israeli ground, it is astonishing. At a point where they say “we have eliminated 90 percent of Hezbollah's leaders” and “we have destroyed 60-70 percent of its missile-rocket stockpile”, these qualified attacks are coming. While Netanyahu is making Lebanon a living hell in order to bring the settlers fleeing 5-10 kilometers deep into the north back home, he himself has been displaced from his home at the foot of Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah's escalation will force Israel to either ceasefire or use more firepower.
By blaming Tehran for the attack on his residence, Netanyahu is trying to squeeze the U.S. for a stronger retaliation. He is looking for a way to paralyze and disable Iran so that he can go full offensive against Hezbollah. According to The Times, the response to Iran's retaliation is aimed at dealing heavy blows to the Revolutionary Guards and destabilizing the regime. If they enter Lebanon to the extent they want, Iran will do everything it can to ensure a swamp scenario. They want to get Iran in trouble early so that support fronts do not open up.
Plans cooked in bunkers in Tel Aviv and sauced in the White House may not work on the ground. Yes, the ‘beheading’ operations, with endless support from the U.S., have emboldened Netanyahu to increase his target. But Hezbollah should not be underestimated, Israeli experts say. “Let's not underestimate Hezbollah,” former army spokesperson Ronen Manelis warned after Netanyahu's residence was hit.
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Nasrallah said that if the resistance was defeated in Gaza, Lebanon would be next. Netanyahu is not in favor of a ceasefire either in Gaza or in Lebanon. After Nasrallah, Hezbollah appeared to back down for a while to give the ceasefire effort a chance. Then, in the face of Israeli intentions and plans, it returned to its strategy of gradual escalation. The new phase was called the 'strategy of inflicting pain on the enemy'. Obviously, Hezbollah has ruled out withdrawal as an option at this stage. Giving up would mean the decimation of the entire population in the south, especially the Shiites. Stopping the atrocities in Gaza will depend on the deterrence of the Lebanese front.
Israel wants to revive the fear that it seared into the hearts of the Arabs in the 1967 war. Not everyone, but one side refuses to be afraid. It is too early to speculate about an unfinished war. What is clear is that a strategy based on ‘beheading’ does not provide Israel with the deterrence and security it seeks.