TÜİK reports monthly inflation at 0.89 percent while independent research group says 3.94 percent

K. Murat Yıldız / Duvar English

On a monthly basis, Consumer Price Index increased by 0.89 percent, while the Domestic Producer Price Index increased by 3.92 percent in May. Consumer price inflation was 16.59 percent down from 17.14 percent in April, and domestic producer price inflation was 38.33 percent, indicating an increase of 22.24 percent on a twelve-month average, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

Meanwhile, the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) reported a 3.94 percent increase in their index, which is significantly higher than the official figure announced by TÜİK.

“The most important factors determining the direction of inflation in Turkey in the coming period will be exchange rate pressure, the weak formation of Central Bank reserves, and a production process that is heavily dependent on imports,” ENAG’s monthly inflation report stated.

In May 2021, when a 'full lockdown' was implemented during the first 17 days due to the pandemic, the consumer price index (CPI) was 0.89 percent higher than the previous month, 6.39 percent higher than December of the previous year, and 16.59 percent higher than the same month the previous year. When compared to the twelve-month averages, the CPI increased by 14.13 percent.

In May, the CPI, excluding unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and gold, increased by 0.98 percent from the previous month, 6.48 percent from December of the previous year, 17.49 percent from the same month the previous year, and 14.35 percent from the twelve-month average.

Price of 259 items out of 415 increased

During the same period, the average price of 97 of the 415 items in the index decreased, while the average price of 59 items remained unchanged. Thus, the price of 259 items increased on average.

Among those items potatoes showed the largest increase with 41.57 percent, followed by carrots with 36.37 percent, and inter-city travel with 29.46 percent.

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco group saw the smallest annual increase with 2.90 percent. Clothing and footwear saw a 5.75 percent increase, communication had an 8.07 percent increase, and entertainment and culture had a 10.05 percent increase. These were the other main groups with lower increases compared to the same month the previous year.

Transportation costs top the list again

Transportation, clothing and shoes, and miscellaneous goods and services had the highest monthly increases in May, with 2.56 percent, 1.76 percent, and 1.62 percent, respectively, in terms of the main expenditure groups.

Transportation, household goods, and health, on the other hand, saw the largest increases compared to the same month the previous year, with 28.39 percent, 21.79 percent, and 19.30 percent, respectively.

On an annual basis, the Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) for mining and quarrying increased by 32.88 percent, manufacturing by 41.27 percent, electricity and gas production and distribution by 6.64 percent, and water supply by 29.72 percent in May.

When the annual changes of the major industrial groups are examined, intermediate goods increased by 47.76 percent, durable goods increased by 29.18 percent, non-durable goods increased by 25.22 percent, energy increased by 43.33 percent, and capital goods increased by 29.49 percent.

In terms of monthly changes, intermediate goods increased by 5.2 percent, durable goods increased by 2.4 percent, non-durable goods increased by 1.65 percent, energy increased by 5.17 percent, and capital goods increased by 3.14 percent.

Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production and distribution saw the smallest annual increase with 6.64 percent, followed by clothing with 8.58 percent, and leather and related products with 12.64 percent. Crude oil and natural gas, with a 217.86 percent increase, refined petroleum products with a 167.09 percent increase, and basic metals with an 84.66 percent increase, were the sub-sectors with the highest index increases.