Why Hezbollah threatened Cyprus in 10 questions

Nikolaos Stelya / DUVAR 

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on June 19 threatened the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the European Union (EU). Nasrallah said that in the event of a full-scale war, no part of Israel would be safe and targeted Cyprus. Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides stated that Cyprus is not a party to any conflict.

Escalating tensions raises the possibility of a regional war. The Republic of Cyprus is ready to cooperate with the international community to prevent this scenario. So, why did Hezbollah threaten Cyprus? Where does the Gaza flotilla raid fit into all this? In 10 questions, here is what is known about the rising tension on the Lebanon-Cyprus axis.

Why did the Hezbollah leader threaten the Republic of Cyprus?

In a televised speech on June 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that in the event of a full-scale war, no part of Israel would be safe. He also threatened Cyprus and other parts of the Mediterranean. According to a related report in Reuters, Nasrallah said that missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would hit every part of Israel.

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah also accused the Cypriot government of supporting Israel and warned that Cyprus would also become a part of the war.

What was the Cypriot government's first reaction to Nasrallah's threat?

According to recent reports in the Cypriot media, Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides rejected claims that Cyprus is a party to any conflict. “Cyprus is not part of the problem but part of the solution. This role is evident, for example, through the humanitarian corridor to Gaza. This corridor has been recognized not only by the Arab world but also by the international community.”

Who is telling the truth? Nasrallah or Christodoulides?

The President's indirect response to Nasrallah through the media contradicts what has long been discussed in the media and political circles in the south of Nicosia. The latest information from well-informed diplomatic sources shows that military cooperation along the Israel-Cyprus-Greece line is not a new development, but has its roots in agreements reached in the early 2010s.

“Since Israel's airspace is limited, we are witnessing air elements of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducting exercises in the Cypriot airspace,” a source said.

Are the Hezbollah-Cyprus tensions centered only on the IDF's exercises in Cyprus?

Nasrallah's criticism of Cyprus, if considered independently of his latest speech, is not limited to the IDF's military activities in the south of the island. Before threatening an open attack on Cyprus, Nasrallah called on Lebanon to 'open the sea' for Syrian refugees to travel to Cyprus.

"A national decision must be taken to open the sea to those who want to go to Europe, to Cyprus, the closest European Union country to the Middle East," Nasrallah said as the EU member Republic of Cyprus tried to reach an agreement with Lebanon on the refugee issue.

Has Cyprus recently taken steps that have drawn the ire of Hezbollah?

Apart from support for Israel and the refugee issue, there have been other recent developments that have pitted Hezbollah against Cyprus. Last summer, Cyprus, with the support of Israel and foreign intelligence agencies, carried out operations against elements of Hezbollah linked to Iran, Hezbollah's close supporter, who were preparing attacks on the island.

When did the Israeli-Cypriot rapprochement, which drew the ire of Hezbollah, begin?

The Israeli-Cyprus rapprochement, which caused the reaction of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the armed organization of the Lebanese Shiites, was reflected on the agenda in the early 2010s when Turkey-Israel relations reached a breaking point.

As the Gaza flotilla raid alienated Israel from Turkey, Tel Aviv began to develop multilateral relations with Nicosia and Greece, its close ally in the region. In recent years, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece have taken important steps in the fields of economy, tourism, culture, energy, and defense.

How does the energy issue relate to recent developments?

Energy is another factor that plays a leading role in the acceleration of relations along the Israel-Cyprus-Greece axis. In the 2010s, first Israel and then Cyprus took important steps towards the commercial exploitation of natural gas reserves off their coasts and their future transportation to the European market. Together with Egypt, these countries took steps to exclude Turkey from the new energy map of the region and cooperated in many areas. These steps have occasionally provoked criticisms and counter-steps from Ankara.

Is Nasrallah's reaction to Cyprus limited to the south of the island? What are the role of the sovereign bases of Britain in all this?

While Nasrallah's latest threat appears to directly concern the EU member state of Cyprus, there are other “recipients” of the threat. Experts in Cyprus warn that the UK's sovereign bases at Dhekelya and Akrotiri could become targets in the event of a regional war as a result of a possible Israeli attack on Lebanon. In recent months, these bases have come to the fore in developments centered on Israel and Yemen.

Is there a threat to northern Cyprus?

Hezbollah's threat of an attack on Cyprus does not include the northern part of the island. Although Nasrallah did not differentiate between north and south in his speech, the recipients of the threat are Greek Cypriots, hence the Republic of Cyprus in the south of the island, which has been under Greek Cypriot control since 1964. However, the geographical factors of Cyprus make Hezbollah's threat a major danger for the whole island.

Commenting on this development, the sources emphasize factors such as the Iran-Hezbollah duo's weapons and attack vehicles' pinpoint accuracy, their potential to hit distant targets, and the potential for unforeseen situations to arise if the war expands. Recalling the recent example of the accidental crash of an S-200 missile launched from Syria into Northern Cyprus, the sources also draw attention to the significant number of Iranian and Israeli citizens who have settled in the northern part of the island.

How strong is the possibility of a regional war?

How do the media, politics, and diplomacy in the south of Cyprus view the possibility of a regional war with the potential to affect the entire island? The latest information from the south of Nicosia suggests that for Cyprus, the possibility of a regional war is seen by all sides as a “last resort scenario.”

Despite the latest information from Israel, Cypriot sources insist that so far there is no consensus on the Israeli side to attack Lebanon. Nevertheless, the latest messages from Hezbollah and Israel have raised tensions in the region to unprecedented levels. Sources in Nicosia emphasize that Cyprus will not refrain from taking all initiatives before the EU, the UN, and friendly countries in order to prevent an undesirable scenario. Cyprus is also ready for direct dialogue with Iran to prevent a major war.