CHP preparing to announce presidential candidate: 7 questions

The arrest of Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer and the appointment of a trustee in his place, the arrest of Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat, and the opening of two new investigations against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who criticized these developments, led to a discussion in the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) about a new road map. 

After a series of meetings with the authorized organs of the party, it was decided that a presidential candidate should be determined as soon as possible.

Announcing the decision at his party's group meeting, CHP leader Özgür Özel said that they also talked to Istanbul and Ankara mayors, Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, whose names were among the presidential candidates, and said, “Our organizational consensus is complete on being ready for a new beginning, a new process together.”

Pointing to April at the latest for the nomination process, Özel said that 1.6 million registered members of the party can vote in the primary election.

He spoke of the full consensus of the organization on the decision, but the announcement raised many questions in the background, and many concerns were expressed about the risks of early nomination. The presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in 2028 in case of no early election.

Why does the CHP name its presidential candidate so early?

According to the supporters of this decision, the main reason is that it has become imperative to find a rival against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is planning to run in early elections. They argue that the CHP's debate on “Will İmamoğlu or Yavaş be the candidate?” should be turned into “Will Erdoğan or the CHP candidate win?” in the eyes of the public, “When the candidate is determined, the competition between the government candidate and the CHP candidate will be watched.” Party members defending the decision to nominate candidates early also express the following views:

“The country is ruled by lawsuits. The judiciary has been instrumentalized. Erdoğan has made the CHP a target, he is cleaning the road to win. Morale is deteriorating. Our biggest problem right now is demoralization. We need to get out of here. The candidate announcement will add excitement and help us organize a more open and clear campaign.”

“We have entered a period of complete lawlessness. The government is trying to regulate the opposition. We also see preparations inside the party. The target is directly İmamoğlu. The government has political calculations. We will react to every new incident, but political calculations must be responded politically. The solution lies in a change of the government. Therefore, a CHP that pushes for elections and announces its candidate will move forward more easily.”

“Erdoğan has gradually accepted his candidacy during the party congress process. He also set out for the election. Politics is a field of competition. If the opposition does not put a candidate against him, Erdoğan will continue to work unopposed. Voters constantly listen to actions and promises from the government. If the executive office is the presidency, the CHP should put forward its candidate for this office and put forward its claim and program for the future.”

İmamoğlu’s possible political ban sentence

There are rumors that this decision was taken against the possibility of “a political ban” on Ekrem İmamoğlu. However, party members reject this assessment, saying, “The issue is to clarify the name that will compete with Erdoğan and put it on the field. To put the interlocutor who is a candidate for the executive office against the government.”

It is often criticized that the announcement of the CHP's presidential candidate would create a dual image in the party, which could lead to controversy, (between CHP leader Özgür Özel and the presidential candidate). However, CHP executives believe that since the congress, the party leader, and the candidates of the presidential candidate have managed the process well and that there will be no risk once a candidate is chosen.

Party’s fault lines

There are also many MPs who express concern that the decision to nominate a candidate early could trigger fault lines in the party, which has yet to achieve internal unity after the congress that previous leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu lost. 

“The decision to nominate a candidate early may lead to some debates and even crises, but these are likely to happen even if the candidate is determined two years later. Therefore, it would be better to experience the possible crisis and the pains of internal competition today and seek solutions, and the party would benefit more from this.”

Mansur Yavaş

It is considered that one of the most important crises that may occur during the nomination process would be if Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality, leaves the party and becomes a candidate too. However, Özel's remarks at the group meeting that Yavaş was also spoken to are seen as a sign of diplomacy regarding the process. Those who argue that the nomination process should be concluded quickly say, “Both Mr. İmamoğlu and Mr. Yavaş are party members. This problem will not turn into a crisis. Whether Mr. Yavaş will participate in the primary election or not, we will see this in the primary election calendar, but he will continue to stay in the party.”

Other opposition parties

In CHP lobbies, attention is drawn to the 50%+1 vote requirement in the presidential election and the question is asked: “Shouldn't the candidate be discussed with the other opposition parties? Wouldn't this be an imposition?”. Some say that each candidate has the capacity to receive votes from outside the voter base of their own party in the presidential election, and that the national alliance will be formed at the grassroots level.

Some party members also said, “A candidate for an election that doesn't exist?” and warned the party leaders that “The announcement of a candidate is not a step to curb the government. The effort to invent a shield for İmamoğlu is understandable, but this shield may create other complications. It is also not right to nominate a candidate without consulting with other opposition parties, an imposition should be avoided.”

Schedule

Özgür Özel is expected to announce the schedule for the primary elections to determine the candidate next week and the process is expected to be completed within two months at the latest.

After the naming, the target will be to call for “immediate elections, not early elections”. According to party executives, the presidential candidate will be in the field to increase the expectation of elections and force the government to hold the elections. It is rumored that the candidate may also share with the public the ministers he will work with during this process, and may start working not only as a candidate but also with his cabinet.

Main opposition CHP to name presidential candidate in coming monthsPolitics