Study reveals Turkey's normalization in June creates risk of second wave COVID-19 infections

Duvar English

'There will definitely be a second wave of COVID-19 in Turkey'

A recent study revealed that starting to lift COVID-19 measures in June, when Turkey in fact did start the normalization process, would create higher risk of a second wave of infections.

Conducted by members of research-focused NGO Science Academy and Özyeğin University, the research titled "The normalization process of the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuations" hypothesizes on two scenarios of lifting preventative measures.

The first normalization scenario looks into the results of lifting bans at the start of June, July or August.

"The simulations show that all three cases would result in a second wave of infections, but that June is particularly premature to start normalization," the research noted, adding that additional infections would be easier to manage in July or August.

'Lifting intercity travel restrictions could expand the spread'

All businesses in Turkey, except entertainment venues, reopened as of June 1, travel restrictions were lifted on intercity transportation and public transportation.

"Lifting intercity travel restrictions could expand the spread and contribute to a second wave," Science Academy Board Chairman Prof. Mehmet Ali Alpar said.

The chairman added that the only measure that could prevent a second wave of infections would be if the country's population has developed immunity.

A second hypothetical scenario contemplates on the normalization process starting in June, and a week's delay in taking sufficient precautionary measures within social life.

The research results predicted that a week's delay in implementing sufficient preventative measures within the normalization process would lead to even more infections than were observed at the start of the pandemic in Turkey in March.

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