Poll of polls shows Kılıçdaroğlu ahead of Erdoğan as election goes to second round

According to the average of opinion polls conducted by 10 different companies in April 2023, the main opposition bloc Nation Alliance’s presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leads the race but cannot exceed the 50 percent threshold. Eight out of 10 polls suggested that that the election will go to a second round.

Tuesday April 25 2023 11:06 pm

Duvar English

Approximately two and a half weeks remain until the Turkish presidential election to be held on May 14. According to the average of opinion polls conducted in April 2023, main opposition bloc Nation Alliance’s presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is leading the race.

Online news outlet Euronews has averaged the April polls conducted by public opinion research companies Metropoll, Gezici, ORC, ALF, Optimar, SONAR, MAK, Aksoy, AR-G, and Yöneylem.

This image shows the vote shares of candidates in different polls.

According to the results, Kılıçdaroğlu is ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but cannot exceed the 50 percent threshold. In eight out of 10 polls, Kılıçdaroğlu is in the lead, while Erdoğan is in the first place in two polls (Optimar and SONAR).

According to the average of 10 polls after the distribution of swing voters, Kılıçdaroğlu got 47.5 percent of the vote. Erdoğan's vote share remained at 44.4 percent. While Homeland Party leader Muharrem İnce got six percent, far-right ATA Alliance’s candidate Sinan Oğan received approximately two percent.

After proportionally distributing undecided voters, non-respondents and those who said they would not vote, eight out of 10 polls showed that the election will go to a second round.

In the June 24, 2018 presidential election, the People's Alliance candidate Erdoğan was elected president in the first round with 52.4 percent of the votes. Other candidates İnce received 30.8 percent of the votes, Selahattin Demirtaş 8.3 percent, Meral Akşener 7.4 percent, and Temel Karamollaoğlu 0.9 percent.